Colombia and Ghana meet at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Friday evening local time (02:30 UK time on Saturday 4 July) with a place in the last sixteen at stake. For both sides, this is the end of the road if they lose. The Round of 32 offers no consolation prizes.
The two nations have never met at a World Cup, and the head-to-head data shows no previous meetings at all between them. There is no psychological ledger to consult, no scar tissue from a past encounter. Whatever happens at Arrowhead, it will be a first.
Colombia arrive as the nominal favourites. They have the individual quality across the pitch to cause problems, and their South American pedigree in knockout football is well established. Ghana, competing at the World Cup for the fifth time, have shown before that they can organise and disrupt in equal measure, even against superior opponents on paper. Both squads report no fresh absences, which means each manager has a full hand to play with and no injury excuse to reach for.
The venue adds its own weight. Arrowhead Stadium, better known for American football, holds over 70,000, and the atmosphere in a knockout tie tends to do strange things to teams who are not used to carrying expectation. Colombia, with the higher seeding and the pressure that comes with it, will know that a draw after ninety minutes offers them nothing. Ghana will know the same.
Tactically, the interest lies in whether Ghana can stay compact and make Colombia work for every opening, or whether Colombia's forward line can find space early and force the game open on their own terms. A cagey first half is entirely plausible; both sides have reason to be cautious before committing.
The data leans firmly toward caution on the scoresheet. The prediction gives Colombia a 50 per cent chance and Ghana no realistic chance of a win, with the draw accounting for the remaining half, but the recommended read from the numbers is Colombia to win or draw combined with under 3.5 goals. In short, the data expects Colombia to advance without the match becoming a high-scoring affair. Whether Ghana have any say in that is the only question worth asking before kick-off.