Congo DR need a result at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday night. A point from their final Group K fixture keeps alive a slim hope of sneaking through as one of the best third-placed sides; a defeat, and they are gone. For Uzbekistan, the equation is even starker: they sit bottom of the group with no points and a goal difference of minus seven, so only victory will do, and even then they would likely need results elsewhere to cooperate.
Colombia have already wrapped up top spot with six points from six, while Portugal sit second on four. That leaves Congo DR third on one point, the solitary draw they salvaged from their two matches so far. Uzbekistan, by contrast, have shipped eight goals in two games and scored just one. The scale of the task facing Uzbekistan's side becomes clear when you consider that their opponents in this fixture are the only team in the group with a worse defensive record than Portugal.
The head-to-head record offers no clues at all. These two nations have never met at senior international level, meaning Sunday night in Atlanta will be a first encounter for both sets of players and both benches.
Team news carries no complications for either side. Both squads have reported no fresh absences heading into the match, which gives each manager a full hand to play. For Congo DR, that continuity matters: they have shown enough in patches during this tournament to suggest they can find a goal, even if consistency has been the problem. Uzbekistan will need to be considerably more solid than they have been in their opening two fixtures if they are to threaten a team that is, in every objective sense, fighting for its World Cup life.
The data leans heavily in Congo DR's favour. The prediction model gives the home side a 45 per cent chance of winning, with the draw also rated at 45 per cent, leaving Uzbekistan just a 10 per cent chance of the victory they absolutely require. In practical terms, nearly any outcome short of a Uzbekistan win extends Congo DR's tournament, however briefly. Whether they have enough to force the point, or the three, that their group standing demands is the one question this match has to answer.