England led for thirty minutes and were heading to a World Cup final. Then Messi picked up the ball.
Two goals in the last five minutes of regulation, both assisted by Lionel Messi, sent Argentina through to the final and ended England's tournament in the cruellest fashion possible. Enzo Fernández equalised in the 85th minute, and Lautaro Martínez, on the pitch for barely nine minutes, settled it in the 92nd minute. Thomas Tuchel's side had defended a one-goal lead with discipline and nerve for half an hour, only to be undone by the one player on earth who makes those calculations irrelevant.
The numbers told the story with brutal clarity. Argentina had 64 per cent of the ball, attempted 15 shots to England's five, and posted an expected goals figure of 1.84 against England's 0.53. Scaloni's side were the better team throughout and, for long stretches, the only team playing forward with any conviction. That England held on as long as they did owed much to their defensive shape and, in particular, to Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson sitting deep and making life difficult in central areas.
England's goal, when it came, felt against the run of play even at the time. Morgan Rogers picked the ball up and found Anthony Gordon, who finished on 55 minutes to give the home crowd in Atlanta something to believe in. It was England's second shot on target in the match. Gordon had worked hard without many moments of quality before that, and the goal was, in every sense, his best contribution. He was replaced just before the hour mark.
For the next half-hour England were resolute. Pickford, not seriously tested before Gordon's goal, made saves to keep it at one. Argentina's six corner kicks produced little of danger, and their 15 attempts included eight from outside the box that Pickford could deal with comfortably enough. But the pressure was relentless, and the mathematics of it always suggested one lapse would be enough.
The lapse came in the 85th minute. Messi, operating in the pockets of space that England's narrow midfield could not entirely close, found Fernández, who drove forward and finished without hesitation. The equaliser was well-worked, neat and precise. Argentina had earned it. Then, with the clock in the red, Messi provided again, threading a pass through for the substitute Martínez, who had come on for Giuliano Simeone. The finish was composed, the timing of the run precise, and England were out.
Jude Bellingham found the tournament's semi-final stage something of a dead end. He occupied the no. 10 position behind Kane without ever imposing himself on the game. Harry Kane, for his part, was almost entirely starved of service. With England on 36 per cent possession and their xG barely above half a goal, there was simply not enough ball going forward for strikers to thrive.
Cristian Romero was Argentina's most forceful defensive presence, and Alexis Mac Allister controlled large passages without ever making the error England needed. But the evening belonged to Messi and, in the final analysis, to Fernández for the clinical finishing that put two assists to use.
England go home having reached the last four of a World Cup, which is no small thing. But the manner of the exit, leading deep into stoppage time before being overwhelmed in two minutes, will take some time to forget. Argentina, for their part, advance to the final still carrying the one player for whom no lead is ever entirely safe.