England and Argentina meet in the World Cup semi-finals on Wednesday evening, and however you dress it up, this is the fixture the tournament wanted. One side is heading to the final; the other goes home. The stakes are precisely that simple.
England arrive having navigated the knockout rounds, and Gareth Southgate's successor will be grateful for one piece of good news on the injury front. Jarrell Quansah is absent from the squad, which creates a decision at the back. Argentina, meanwhile, report no fresh absences, meaning their most dangerous players should be available.
The head-to-head record between these nations at this tournament offers no guide at all: the two sides have not met in this competition in the data available, so there is no recent scar tissue to pick at, no score to avenge. They arrive at this match on equal historical footing, at least by that measure.
What England can call upon is the motivation of a squad that has reached a World Cup final precisely once, in 1966, and has spent most of the intervening sixty years being reminded of it. Argentina, three-time world champions, carry the weight of expectation that comes with being the defending title holders, a side built around players accustomed to winning things. The contrast in tournament pedigree is real, and it matters in matches this tight.
Tactically, England will need to be compact and patient. Argentina tend to find space in the channels and in the half-turn, and allowing them to build rhythm is a risk no England side can afford. If England are to reach the final, they will almost certainly need to be ahead, or level, going into the last twenty minutes. History suggests chasing the game against this opposition is not a profitable strategy.
The data leans away from an England win. The prediction model gives them a ten per cent chance of victory in ninety minutes, with Argentina and a draw each sitting at forty-five per cent. That means the most likely outcomes, according to the numbers, involve England not losing in normal time but ultimately falling short when it comes to the full picture. For England's supporters, a clean read of those figures is uncomfortable. For Argentina's, it is simply confirmation of what they already suspected.