England and Congo DR meet for the first time in their histories on Wednesday evening at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the occasion could hardly carry more weight. This is the Round of 32, the point at which the tournament stops being about group-stage arithmetic and starts being about survival. One mistake, one lapse in the final third, and the summer is over.
For England, the expectation is familiar and heavy. Three Lions sides have been here before, in knockout rounds that promised much and delivered complicated feelings, and there will be no shortage of nervous energy in the stands. Gareth Southgate's successor inherits a squad with genuine quality across the pitch, and the hope is that quality shows up when it counts rather than merely in the build-up.
On the injury front, Reece James is absent for England, which narrows the options at right back and removes a player who offers both defensive solidity and attacking width. The fact pack records no further fresh absences for either side, so both squads otherwise report clean bills of health going into the game.
Congo DR arrive as the underdogs by most measures, but reaching the Round of 32 at a World Cup is no accident. They will be organised, they will be physical, and they will be aware that nothing concentrates a team's mind quite like the prospect of putting a major nation out of a tournament. Any side still standing at this stage of the competition has earned its place.
Because these two nations have never previously met at any level recorded here, there is no head-to-head pattern to lean on, no historical grudge or tactical memory for either coaching staff to consult. It is a clean slate, which suits the side that handles the occasion better.
The data leans firmly in England's favour. A double chance backing England or a draw returns a combined probability of 100 per cent, with no probability assigned to a Congo DR victory. That is not a ringing endorsement of English nerve so much as a reflection of the gulf in resources between the two sides. Whether England can turn that resource advantage into goals, and avoid the kind of stalemate that sends knockout ties to extra time, is the question that will define their evening. Kick-off at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium is Wednesday 1 July at 17:00 UK time.