England open their 2026 World Cup campaign against Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on Wednesday 17 June, and the fixture carries the particular weight that only a Group L opener can: three points here would set the tone for everything that follows against Ghana and Panama.
Group L begins with every side level on zero points and zero goals, which makes this the purest kind of football arithmetic. Win, and England move to the front of a group they will be expected to top. Lose, and the pressure on the remaining fixtures sharpens considerably. Croatia, runners-up in Russia in 2018 and finalists in Qatar four years later, are not the sort of side that allows for a slow start.
The history between these nations at World Cups adds a layer of familiarity. England and Croatia have met four times in the available data, with England winning twice, drawing once and losing once. Their last encounter finished England 1-0 Croatia at Euro 2020, a result that at least tidied up memories of the 2018 World Cup semi-final, when Croatia eliminated England in extra time in Moscow. Luka Modric's generation defined that run; whether Croatia's current squad carries the same threat is the central question surrounding their tournament.
Both squads report no absences ahead of kick-off, which means neither manager has been forced into unwanted selections. That is some relief for England, who will want their best options available from the first whistle rather than improvising before a ball has been kicked.
Dallas in June is its own challenge, with the AT&T Stadium roof providing cover but the weight of midsummer heat making the surroundings heavy. Conditions favour sides that can control tempo and keep the ball, and England's depth in midfield ought to give them a platform if they impose themselves early.
The prediction percentages place England at 45 per cent, a draw also at 45 per cent, and Croatia with 10 per cent chance of the win. The advice sits on the double chance of an England result or a share of the spoils, reflecting how closely matched these sides are considered while still acknowledging that Croatia are unlikely to simply run over a full-strength England side. For England, a draw would be a liveable start but little more. For Croatia, it might be exactly what they came for.