France and Morocco meet again at the sharp end of a World Cup, four years on from the night in Qatar when Les Bleus ended Africa's first semi-final run. A quarter-final at Gillette Stadium on Thursday evening carries the same weight, perhaps more: one side advances to the last four, the other goes home.
The two nations have met only once in competitive football at this level, and France won it comfortably. That 2-0 victory in the 2022 semi-final remains the sole entry in the head-to-head book between them at a World Cup, though Morocco will point out they were by no means disgraced that night and have since continued to build one of the more organised international squads in the game.
France arrive as the side ranked more likely to progress, though this is a knockout match and knockout matches have a habit of making statistics look foolish. Didier Deschamps has a full squad to choose from, and the Morocco camp reports no fresh absences either, both sides confirming no new injuries ahead of kick-off in Boston.
Morocco, coached with considerable tactical discipline, have shown across this tournament that they are not a side content to sit and absorb. Their defensive record has been built on collective shape rather than individual brilliance, and they will need that shape to hold against an attacking unit that, when it flows, is among the best at this competition.
The tactical interest centres on how Morocco handle France's transitions. In open play, France can hurt almost anyone; the question for manager Walid Regragui is whether his side can be compact without ceding so much ground that they have nothing to offer going forward.
As for the data, it leans firmly toward France, with the prediction model giving them a 45 per cent chance of a win in normal time and drawing a further 45 per cent, leaving Morocco only a 10 per cent chance of victory. That shape, nine chances in ten that France either win or the tie goes to extra time, tells you what the numbers think of an Atlas Lions upset. It does not, of course, tell you what happens when the whistle goes in Boston on Thursday night.