Germany and Paraguay meet in the Round of 32 on Monday evening in what amounts to a straightforward proposition for the European side: win, or go home. It is knockout football at its most unforgiving, and for Paraguay, ranked as heavy outsiders by almost every measure, it represents the kind of occasion their players will either rise to or be quietly overwhelmed by.
Germany arrive as the presumed favourites, though 45 per cent backing from the data models is a long way short of dominance. The same figure is assigned to a draw, which tells you something about the uncertainty baked into single-elimination football at this stage of a World Cup. Paraguay, on 10 per cent, are not entirely without hope, but they will need to be disciplined, organised, and fortunate in roughly equal measure.
On the team news front, Germany report two absences ahead of kick-off. N. Brown and N. Schlotterbeck are both unavailable, the latter a blow to their defensive options if, as expected, their back line is tested on the break. Paraguay are without D. Gómez, which weakens their attacking options at precisely the moment they need every threat they can muster.
The head-to-head record offers no useful guide here: the two nations have not met before, so there is no psychological ledger to consult, no previous meeting to lend either side an edge in confidence or familiarity.
Germany's pedigree in knockout rounds scarcely needs rehearsing. Four World Cup titles and a reputation for finding something extra when the margins tighten have made them a reliably difficult proposition in the latter stages of a tournament. Paraguay, by contrast, have historically punched well above their weight in World Cups, reaching the quarter-finals in 2010 with a brand of resolute, structured defending that frustrated better-resourced opponents. Whether this edition of the side carries those same qualities is a question Monday evening will answer.
The data suggests a Germany victory with at least two goals in the match, which implies the models expect Paraguay to stay compact without being able to hold the line for ninety minutes. Whether that reading proves correct, or whether Paraguay produce something to confound the numbers, is precisely why the game gets played. Kick-off is at 21:30 UK time on Monday 29 June.