Haiti and Scotland meet at Gillette Stadium in Boston on Sunday morning for a fixture that could scarcely matter more to either side. Group C is not shy of ambition: Brazil and Morocco sit in the other half of the draw, which means the margin for error in the opener is effectively zero. Lose here and the path to the last 16 becomes brutally narrow before the tournament has properly begun.
For Scotland, this is only their second World Cup appearance in the modern era and the weight of expectation from a football-mad nation travels with them across the Atlantic. They arrive as the side most observers would expect to collect three points, yet Haiti are no charitable hosts. The Caribbean nation qualified through a competitive CONCACAF process and will carry the belief of a squad with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Underdogs with that particular combination tend to be awkward opponents in opening matches, when nerves and the occasion can flatten the form book.
Both squads report no fresh absences ahead of kick-off, which at least spares each manager any last-minute reshuffling. Full fitness across the board is a minor luxury in a tournament where the schedule allows precious little recovery time between group games.
There is no history to draw on here. Haiti and Scotland have never met at senior international level, so there are no head-to-head patterns to lean on, no psychological baggage from previous encounters. The pitch at Gillette Stadium will be neutral ground in every sense.
The group table is a clean slate, all four sides level on zero points, and the opening round of fixtures will reshape it entirely by the time the week is out. A Scotland win sets up a genuine contest for second place behind whoever emerges from the Brazil-Morocco encounter. A Haiti victory would be one of the more striking results of the group stage and would immediately complicate calculations for the Scots.
The prediction model splits the probabilities in thirds: 33 per cent each for a Haiti win, a draw, and a Scotland victory. That is the model's way of saying this match genuinely could go anywhere. In Boston on Sunday, we find out.