Nobody arrives at a World Cup group opener expecting a gentle stroll, but Iraq and Norway carry particular pressure into Gillette Stadium on Tuesday evening. Group I also contains France and Senegal, two sides with genuine tournament pedigree, which means anything other than three points here could leave either team scrambling for survival before the group stage is a fortnight old.
For Iraq, this is the kind of occasion that arrives once in a generation. Their qualification was a landmark moment for football across the region, and the Lions of Mesopotamia will know that a positive result against a European side at a World Cup would reframe expectations for everything that follows. Boston's Gillette Stadium, with its vast and often raucous atmosphere, is as demanding a venue as any in North America, and Iraq's ability to impose their own tempo, rather than chase the game, will matter from the first whistle.
Norway arrive with a squad built around some of the more recognisable names in European club football, and the expectation of a nation that has waited a very long time for this stage. They have qualified for just one World Cup since 1998, so the weight of that gap sits alongside the excitement. A win here does not guarantee progression, but it sets the tone against opponents France and Senegal will both study carefully.
There is no head-to-head record to draw on. These two nations have not met before in competitive football, which strips away any psychological edge either side might otherwise claim and makes Tuesday's match genuinely open. Both squads report no fresh absences, which at least means each manager can select from a full complement heading into the group's opening round.
The data, for what it is worth at this stage, offers no lean at all. The prediction model returns an even split of 33 per cent for each possible outcome, a reflection less of any particular analytical uncertainty and more of the fact that Iraq and Norway are unknown quantities against one another, in a tournament neither has substantial recent form to anchor. When the numbers refuse to pick a side, the match itself tends to be worth watching.
Kick-off is at 23:00 UK time on Tuesday 16 June.