Ivory Coast arrive at the Round of 32 as the side the data refuses to write off, and Norway as the side it very nearly does. Tuesday evening's fixture carries the full weight of a knockout tie with no margin for error, no second chances, and no way back once the whistle goes.
The Elephants come into this match as the narrow favourites, which will surprise nobody who has tracked their progress through the tournament. Their blend of experienced midfield craft and pace in wide areas has been a recurring theme, and they will carry a home-nation confidence of sorts given the overwhelming statistical backing. Norway, by contrast, find themselves at serious risk of an early exit. The data assigns them only a ten per cent chance of winning, a number bleak enough to concentrate minds in the camp considerably.
For both squads, the team news offers no fresh complications. Neither side reports any injuries heading into the tie, so managers will have their full complement available and selection headaches, if they exist, are of the welcome variety.
There is no recent head-to-head record to consult. These two nations have not met in competitive football, at least not within any traceable recent history, so there are no old scores to settle and no psychological edge from previous encounters. Both sides must rely entirely on present form and tactical preparation rather than any lingering memory of past encounters.
The tactical shape of the contest may well hinge on whether Norway can stay compact and absorb pressure in the opening half-hour. If Ivory Coast establish an early rhythm, the ten per cent win probability for the Scandinavians begins to feel generous. If Norway can frustrate and nick a set-piece goal, the complexion of the evening changes entirely, and a draw remains firmly on the table given the model places both home win and draw at 45 per cent apiece.
That symmetry between an Ivory Coast win and a stalemate is the most telling number in the pack. The data leans toward the Elephants advancing, but it acknowledges, with considerable honesty, that Norway keeping it level and forcing extra time or penalties is almost equally likely. A clean Norwegian victory is the outcome the model treats as a long shot, though knockout football has a habit of making long shots look shorter than they appeared on paper once the first tackle goes in.
Kick-off is Tuesday 30 June at 18:00 UK time.