Belgium arrive at BC Place on Saturday knowing that two points from two matches has left their World Cup in genuine peril. A second successive draw would almost certainly end their tournament, and a defeat would confirm it. New Zealand, meanwhile, sit bottom of Group G with a single point and a goal difference of minus two. For the All Whites, only a win keeps the dream alive. Both sides need to attack. Neither can afford not to.
Egypt lead Group G on four points and Iran sit second on two, level with Belgium on points but superior on goal difference. The arithmetic for Belgium is straightforward and unforgiving: they require at least a draw, and probably a win, to have any realistic hope of progressing as one of the best third-placed sides. A loss to a team ranked below them at this stage would represent one of the more abject group-stage exits a side of their standing could manage.
New Zealand have been enterprising, at least in patches. They have scored three goals in two games, which is not nothing, but they have conceded five and their defensive record against better-organised opposition has been worrying. Belgium, by contrast, have found the net just once in 180 minutes, their attack misfiring at a tournament where they needed it most.
Team news tilts slightly against Belgium. J. Doku and N. Ngoy are both absent for the Belgians, reducing Roberto Martinez's options in wide areas at precisely the moment his side need creativity and penetration. New Zealand report no fresh absences, which at least gives their manager a full hand to play.
There is no history between these two sides to draw on. This is a first competitive meeting, which strips away any psychological edge from previous encounters and makes the stakes of the present moment the only thing that matters. Both teams are, in that sense, meeting each other without preconceptions.
The data leans firmly away from New Zealand. The prediction model gives the All Whites just a ten per cent chance of victory, with a draw and a Belgium win sharing the remaining probability almost equally at 45 per cent apiece. In practice, a draw suits Belgium marginally more than New Zealand, which may shape how both sides approach the opening exchanges. Whether Belgium's attack, fitful so far, can finally find its rhythm is the central question of their tournament. Vancouver will provide the answer.