Spain and Belgium meet at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Friday evening with a World Cup semi-final place the reward for whichever side survives ninety minutes, or however long it takes, in what is the pick of the quarter-final ties.

Spain arrive as the higher-rated team on paper, carrying the kind of possession-based certainty that has made them awkward opponents at every major tournament for the better part of two decades. Their route to the last eight has been built on controlling matches rather than chasing them, and Belgium will need to disrupt that rhythm early if they are to make the evening uncomfortable. For a side that has spent years trying to translate individual talent into collective success, this represents one of their clearest opportunities yet at a tournament of this magnitude.

Belgium's quality across the pitch is not in question. Their forwards can hurt you, their midfield has the technical quality to match almost anyone, and they will not come to Los Angeles simply to defend. The question, as it so often is with this generation, is whether they can execute for the full duration of a knockout match under genuine pressure.

Both squads report no fresh absences, which means both managers have their full complement available and no tactical hand forced upon them by circumstance.

There is no head-to-head history between the two nations at World Cup level to draw on, so there is no psychological ledger to settle, no memory of a disputed penalty or a late equaliser to add edge. The occasion alone supplies the tension.

The data leans firmly in Spain's favour while leaving the door open. The numbers give Spain a 45 per cent chance of victory, Belgium just 10 per cent, with the remaining 45 per cent assigned to a draw and the extended play that would follow. That distribution suggests a tight match is expected, one that Spain are more likely to navigate successfully but that Belgium are capable of stretching into extra time. A knockout quarter-final with a combined 90 per cent probability of either a Spanish win or stalemate at ninety minutes is not quite a formality, but it is about as close as football gets to one side being made a clear favourite without the result being considered settled in advance.

Kick-off at SoFi Stadium is at 20:00 UK time on Friday 10 July.