Spain arrive in Atlanta on Monday knowing that Group H offers no comfortable passage to the knockout rounds. Saudi Arabia and Uruguay share the group with them, two sides capable of disrupting the best-laid plans, which means a stumble against Cape Verde Islands on the opening day could quickly become something far more difficult to recover from. Three points here, on the other hand, would give Luis de la Fuente's side a platform that the rest of the group would spend the following fortnight trying to dismantle.
For Cape Verde Islands, the occasion is everything. A nation of half a million people, making their World Cup debut on the grandest stage the sport offers, facing one of the tournament's most technically accomplished sides. There is no shame in arriving as heavy underdogs. The prize for them is simple: show the world that their qualification was not an accident, and if the football gods are generous, steal something from a match that almost nobody expects them to win.
The two sides have never met before. There is no historical weight to draw on, no previous grudge or psychological edge carried in. Everything is decided on the pitch, from a standing start.
Both squads report no fresh absences, which at least means each manager can prepare without the disruption of late changes to their plans. Spain can name their strongest available group, and Cape Verde Islands have no excuse of circumstance to lean on, which will suit the neutrals well enough.
The Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will be loud and full, a fitting backdrop for a fixture that carries real stakes at one end of the pitch and historic significance at the other. Spain will be expected to control possession, press high, and make the first hour uncomfortable for a side who will defend deep and look to hit on the counter. Cape Verde Islands' best chance likely comes from staying compact and disciplined for as long as possible, then making the most of whatever space Spain leave behind as the game opens up.
The data, for what it is worth, offers nothing definitive: the prediction model gives each outcome exactly one-in-three odds, reflecting the genuine uncertainty of a debut fixture with no head-to-head record to anchor any forecast. The data leans nowhere in particular, which in its own way makes this one of the more intriguing openers of the group stage.
Kick-off at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium is Monday 15 June at 17:00 UK time.