Tunisia arrive at Arrowhead Stadium on Friday night with nothing to lose and, mathematically, everything to play for, though the arithmetic offers them cold comfort. Two straight defeats across their group campaign, nine goals conceded, one scored: it is a Group F showing that has unravelled rather than simply stalled. The Netherlands, by contrast, sit top of the group on four points after a win and a draw, and a point here keeps them safe. Whether Ronald Koeman's side will settle for that is another matter.
Group F has shaped up as one of the tighter contests of the tournament. The Netherlands and Japan are level on four points apiece at the top, with Sweden a point behind on three. Tunisia are adrift on zero. A Dutch win confirms them in the last sixteen regardless of what happens elsewhere. A draw may still be enough, depending on Japan and Sweden's final game, but the Netherlands will not want to leave their fate in other hands.
For all their attacking output, seven goals in two games, the Dutch have not been watertight at the back, conceding three. Tunisia, for their part, have been porous: nine goals against in two matches is a record that invites concern. This is a fixture with the contours of a high-scoring evening, even accounting for the possibility that the Netherlands rotate with one eye on the knockout rounds.
There is no head-to-head history between these two sides at World Cup level to draw on. These nations have not met before in the competition, so Friday night will be a first.
Both camps report no fresh injury absences ahead of kick-off, which at least spares either side the distraction of last-minute squad management.
The data leans firmly toward the Netherlands. The prediction model gives them a 50 per cent chance of winning, with the draw at 50 per cent and Tunisia rated at zero for a victory in this neutral-venue fixture. The advised combination of a Dutch win with the game producing more than two and a half goals reflects both sides' recent numbers: the Netherlands' potency and Tunisia's defensive record point in the same direction. Whether the Oranje push for goals from the first whistle or manage the game once ahead, Tunisia will need something extraordinary to change the conversation in Group F.