Group H is a genuine four-way lottery after the opening round, and Uruguay versus Cape Verde Islands at the Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday night is the match that could begin to sort it out. All four sides picked up a point in their first games, which means every team in the group is separated by nothing at all. A win here moves either side to four points and into a commanding position with one game still to play. A draw, and the logjam simply thickens.
Uruguay were the pre-tournament favourites to top this group. Their opening draw will not have shaken that expectation entirely, but a second game without a win against a side many regard as the group's softest touch would complicate things considerably. They arrive carrying the weight of a footballing culture that has punched above its weight at every World Cup for a century, from Montevideo 1930 to Maracana 1950, and that history brings pressure as much as it brings pride.
Cape Verde Islands, meanwhile, have earned the right to be taken seriously. Their draw in the opening match, keeping a clean sheet in the process, was not an accident of scheduling or a defensive smash-and-grab; it was a composed, organised performance. The Sharks have qualified for this tournament on merit and they know that four points from two games would almost certainly guarantee a place in the knockout rounds, an achievement that would be extraordinary for a nation of their resources. They will not sit deep at the Hard Rock and hope. There is too much to play for.
Both squads report no fresh injury absences ahead of kick-off, which means each manager has a full hand to play.
The sides have never met before, so there is no head-to-head record to pick over and no psychological edge to cite. This is a blank page for both sets of players.
The data leans toward a tight, low-scoring evening rather than a free-flowing contest. The prediction favours Uruguay and draws at 35 per cent each, with Cape Verde Islands given a 30 per cent chance of taking all three points. That near-even split reflects exactly what the table shows: a group so compressed that nobody has established the right to be called favourite. Sunday night in Miami could change that, or it could leave all four teams exactly where they started, staring at the same impossible arithmetic heading into the final round.