Lumen Field will be hosting a World Cup knockout tie on its own turf, which is the sort of occasion American football tends to promise and occasionally deliver. Whether the USA can do the same against Belgium on Tuesday morning is a question the numbers answer rather coldly.
The hosts arrive at the Round of 16 knowing that a home crowd and a tournament atmosphere are about the most persuasive arguments in their favour. Belgium, for their part, bring a head-to-head record that brooks no sentimentality: two meetings, two Belgian wins, including a 5-2 dismantling of the USA in March of this year. That result, barely four months old, sits in the background of every tactical conversation surrounding this fixture. The 2014 World Cup meeting, a 2-1 Belgian win after extra time, adds a longer thread to the same story.
On the injury front, the USA are without Folarin Balogun, whose absence from the attacking line reduces their options in the final third. Belgium report no fresh absences, which is exactly the kind of detail that compounds an already difficult evening for Gregg Berhalter's side. Both squads are otherwise intact, so the selection story belongs to the coaches.
The format demands simplicity: win or go home. For the USA, there is no second chance, no points tally to fall back on, no goal difference to nurse. A knockout round concentrates the mind, and it also has a way of concentrating defensive errors. Belgium are well-practised at exploiting both.
The data leans firmly away from the hosts. The prediction model gives the USA just a 10 per cent chance of winning in 90 minutes, with a draw and a Belgian victory sharing the remaining 90 per cent equally at 45 apiece. The advised bet is the double chance covering a draw or a Belgium win, which is a polite way of saying the analysts do not expect the USA to win this match inside normal time.
That does not make it impossible. Knockout football has a long memory for upsets, and Lumen Field will be loud from the first whistle. But history, recent form, and the models are all pointing in the same direction, and they are not pointing at an American victory.